Emmanuel Macron's remarks didn't provoke any international controversy this time, but rather a series of questions about his intent. A week after his Sorbonne speech on Thursday, April 25, France's foreign partners are still wondering what he meant when he stressed that France's nuclear deterrent was "an essential element in the defense of the European continent."
It's rare for a head of state to indulge in off-the-cuff remarks on such delicate subjects, especially in the middle of the war in Ukraine. Two days after his speech, Macron made his views clear in an interview with a dozen young people in Strasbourg, published by the regional press group Ebra. Asked whether France wanted to "Europeanize its nuclear deterrent capability," Macron replied that he was "in favor of opening this debate," before adding that this reflection should "include missile defense, long-range weapons launches" and "nuclear weapons for those who have them or who have American nuclear weapons on their soil." "Let's put everything on the table and look at what really protects us in a credible way," he said.
His cryptic words immediately provoked fiery reactions from the opposition in France. "A French president shouldn't say that," said François-Xavier Bellamy, lead candidate on the Les Républicains' (right-wing) list for the European elections in June. These remarks are "exceptionally serious because we are touching the very nerve of French sovereignty," he said on Europe 1 radio.
In the experts' opinion, the president's statements served several purposes. First and foremost, it's an electoral issue. "It's the right time to bring a subject to life with a presidential camp that's finding it hard to exist," said Héloïse Fayet, a researcher at the French International Affairs Institute (IFRI) who specializes in deterrence issues. "But it's also a laudable desire to keep the debate going beyond the usual circles, given that the European dimension of the French deterrent has been a recurring theme since the 1970s," she said, even if Macron is the president who has pushed the envelope the furthest on the subject.
'Strategic priority'
Indeed, since his election in 2017, Macron has constantly emphasized this evolution in France's position on defense. "Let's be clear: France's vital interests now have a European dimension," he said at a keynote speech on defense strategy at the Ecole de Guerre, in February 2020, putting his stamp on French public doctrine.
"There's nothing fundamentally new in terms of nuclear doctrine. The assessment of vital interests remains unchanged, and the president is once again sending out the signal that Europe is indeed one of France's strategic priorities," said IFRI director Thomas Gomart. "On the other hand, speaking about nuclear defense is now necessary given the gravity of the situation, due to the war in Ukraine, the need to endow a new security architecture to protect against the Russian threat and the possibility of a change in the nature of the transatlantic relationship after the US elections in November." All the experts agreed that Donald Trump's possible return to the White House in January 2025 could weaken or even break the transatlantic link in regard to Russia.
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